Every day, it seems, the news stream here in the US is dominated by Donald Trump, either as a defendant in multiple civil and criminal trials now underway, or, improbably, as the de facto nominee of the Republican Party, so far ahead of the other candidates that nobody is paying any attention, any more, to the mindless “debates,” where, for the most part, his lackluster “rival” candidates try to outdo each other in declaring their fealty to Trump, or occasionally, mildly criticizing him. Trump is the elephant in the room of all political discourse these days, whether by his obsequious accolytes in the Republican Party, or by horror-stricken Democrats and mainstream media personalities, expressing shock or making jokes about his increasingly violent and hateful outbursts, his blatant lying and gaslighting, and his dire authoritarian plans for his next presidency. As he has since that fateful day in 2015 when he descended the golden escalator in Trump Tower, he continues to suck all the oxygen out of our political discourse.
While most reasonable people — and I especially — continue to hold out hope that juries in Georgia, Florida, and Washington DC will convict him of the multiple felonies for which he has been indicted, and throw him in jail for life, our Constitution, perversely, has no language barring a convicted felon from being elected and serving as President. While sound legal arguments have been advanced, even by eminent conservative legal scholars, that the Fourteenth Amendment bars Trump from holding elective office, since he incited a mob insurrection against the US Congress to disrupt the final (and largely ceremonial) certification of a free and fair election on January 6, 2021, enforcement of this Constitutional provision will entail successful lawsuits against Secretaries of State in a sufficient number of states — especially swing states — to have him removed from the ballot. Such lawsuits will inevitably end up in the Supreme Court, where — at present — right-leaning justices outnumber moderates by six to three, and no fewer than three justices — Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett — were appointed by, and owe their lifetime positions to, Donald Trump. These right-wing justices along with sitting justices such as Alito and Thomas, have thus far shown little to no inclination to abide by the Constitution if it subverts their ideological agenda.
But could Trump possibly be elected again, despite all the outrageous legal and behavioral baggage he now carries? Unfortunately, given the gullibility of the American electorate, and the dependence of our corporate media on maximizing electoral drama in order to maintain their ratings, the answer is probably yes. President Biden, while he has scored many considerable legislative achievements that benefit large swaths of the American public, has restored a strong alliance with our NATO allies, and has a host of accomplished professionals in his cabinet, is nevertheless 78 years old and showing his age, and is, at best, a lackluster political personality. He has declined to step down in part because he knows that his running mate, Kamala Harris, has very little public appeal, and unlike Obama, lacks the charisma to overcome the inherent obstacles posed by her ethnicity in the minds of the white population. She would, in fact, incite a surge of toxic and virulent racism from Donald Trump and the Republicans.
So yes, this lying, deranged, criminal fascist con-man Trump, as matters presently stand, could quite easily wind up in the White House again, after the 2024 election. Then what?
There would be no guard rails left. He would appoint cronies and yes-men to all positions of influence in the Executive Branch, and purge and politicize the Civil Service so that — unlike the last time — there would be no push-back to restrain his worst impulses. In abject gratitude for their political fortune, Republican legislators in both the Senate and House would give him anything he asks for, and he, in turn, would pander to their basest instincts — outlawing abortion nationwide; enabling voter suppression and gerrymandering to prevent ethnic minorities from voting; shaming and persecuting gender-based minorities; censoring books; eliminating social security, medicare, and all other government programs enacted to provide a safety net for ordinary citizens; suppressing his enemies in the media; conducting a belligerent and reckless foreign policy; criminalizing protest and unleashing armed thugs on protestors (as he did in Portland); declaring open season on any and all environmental regulations; propagating self-serving lies in denial of the climate crisis; censoring the press; criminalizing refugees and the homeless…the mind reels and the range and variety of fascist tyranny that would quickly befall the American public. In effect, the US would become the Fourth Reich, and soon, all who opposed him in public would live in fear of a midnight knock on the door…
What then? For starters, I would highly recommend that all concerned citizens should download (for free) a book entitled From Dictatorship to Democracy by the late political scientist Gene Sharp. This is a detailed analysis of the strategies used by nonviolent movements in the past to successfully dismantle or overthrow dictatorships and to restore democracy. Sharp does not in any way overlook the difficulties and challenges faced by those who seek to dismantle dictatorial regimes, but he provides a long list of strategies for nonviolent defiance and resistance that can be useful in such popular movements, even under appallingly oppressive conditions. While, like every other reasonable person, I devoutly hope that this potential horror of a Trumpian dictatorship never comes to pass, we must nevertheless prepare for this eventuality, so that we can resist his tyranny from day one, and — with luck — eventually restore or regenerate our priceless democracy.