Tom Ellis
2 min readFeb 21, 2024

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I have problems with the general hypothesis that there "must" be a vast number of technologically advanced civilizations, "just like us or more so," out there in our vast galaxy, broadcasting information as radio waves in hope of a response.

There are good reasons to doubt this hypothesis. One is the argument by Stephen Jay Gould that the stochastic processes of biological evolution do not lead toward any prespecified "goal," (despite multiple instances of convergent evolution); therefore, if we did another "run" of biological evolution, starting, say, with the emergence of eukaryotic cells that made multicellular organisms possible, it is highly unlikely that we would end up with biota anything like the ones we have. Physical constraints, of course, might limit the number of limbs a land-dwelling creature might have, but consider the vanishingly slim likelihood of (1) anything resembling primates arising; (2) one species out of multiple evolutionary lines of primates coevolving the neurological and physical structures to enable digital communication(i.e. language) resulting in human (or humanoid) cultures coevolving and competing in such a way as to stumble on scientific inquiry and hence technological development, rather than relying on mythopoeic explanations that had always served them well in adapting to their biological niches for thousands of years...

As Stuart Kauffman points out, every phase of evolution creates a vast array of "adjacent possibilities" that have never previously existed and can not possibly be prespecified. This means the possible evolutionary paths of organisms and cultures proliferate exponentially with each emergent phase of evolution, as new adaptations create ever new possibilities for themselves and other organisms who cohabit their niche. Given all this to be true, the odds of finding any "advanced civilization" out there whose evolutionary history matches ours sufficiently to communicate with us are vanishingly slim, and hardly worth the enormous amounts of time, energy, and money spent it the search.

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Tom Ellis
Tom Ellis

Written by Tom Ellis

I am a retired English professor now living in Oregon, and a life-long environmental activist, Buddhist, and holistic philosopher.

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