You are underestimating the effect that the accelerating climate crisis will have on all these trends. What happens when Lake Powell dries up because the snowmelt that historically fed the Colorado River is no longer there? Millions of people in California, Nevada, and Arizona depend entirely on this elaborate system of water retention and redirection for their very survival. And the Oglalla Aquifer that sustains the vast corn belt of the midlands is likewise draining fast, while industrial monocultures and petroleum-based fertilizers have devastated the topsoil. All of these dire trends will render the artificially hyped-up political conflicts that are tearing asunder our social fabric rather trivial by comparison to the huge die-off and mass migration (and resulting chaos and violence) we are likely to see when water scarcity turns the western half of the country into desert while the southeast and the Atlantic coasts are ravaged by hurricanes, rising sea levels, and floods.